Remember all of the technology claims during the dot-com era? Grand ideas backed by absolutely no business plan were plentiful, attracting millions in start-up funding that went for foosball tables, refrigerators packed with free energy drinks, and flashy advertisements that promised the world while delivering nothing.

The dot-com crash was quite spectacular to watch as those heady notions ran up against the unyielding reality of business economics. Fast-forward a couple of years to micro fuel cells that promised reliable, long-lasting power for laptops, PDAs, cell phones, and other portable devices. By 2005 or 2006, analysts claimed, fuel cell use would be widespread.

So here we are at the precipice of 2007, and where are the micro fuel cells? The concept still is being worked on in laboratories across the world as engineers try to overcome the significant challenges that the technology faces. Analysts are now cautiously predicting that tethered models will be available next year to power a laptop for a couple of days, followed in 2008 by a battery-fuel cell combination to integrally power portable devices.

Past the drunken phase
But if past hype is any indication, don’t hold your breath. “We’ve already been through what I call the drunken phase where everyone makes wild claims,” said Gil Russell, director of alternative power technologies for Semico Research Corp., based in Phoenix. “What happened is that everyone ran into a wall: the physical reality of material science.”

Direct methanol fuel cells, one of the most-promising technologies, uses a polymer called nafion as the proton exchange membrane, but the material can’t stand up to more than 1,000 use cycles, which limits its utility in the mobile market. “So researchers are going back to the Periodic Table to look at other polymers to get hydrogen protons to transpose the membrane, react to the oxygen molecule, and complete the circuit,” Russell said. “They’re using software to track the chemistry involved and waiting for the ‘a-ha’ moment for the next likely candidate.”

Standardization and packaging of micro fuel cells also pose significant hurdles. Each cell is capable of just six volts, so multiple cells must be stacked to work effectively. Complicating matters is the fact that fuel cells are slow to respond to power spikes. It’s necessary to bundle batteries with the system (much like using an uninterruptible power supply to protect computer systems) to smooth out power spikes and safeguard crucial data should primary power fail.

A study released last year by NanoMarkets predicts that mobile fuel cells will be a $1.6 billion market by 2010 and a $2.6 billion market by 2012. Where once batteries and fuel cells were seen as competing solutions, the inability of fuel cells to deal with power spikes will create a dual battery/fuel cell solution, as Russell also predicts. By 2010, more than 80% of fuel cells will be used in conjunction with batteries, according to NanoMarkets, which analyzes the market opportunities and disruptions brought by technology advances at the micro and nano scale.

“Two years ago, direct methanol was being talked about as being available this year; this year, the talk is two or three years down the road,” said Nabil Nasr, assistant provost and director of the Center for Integrated Manufacturing Studies at the Rochester Institute of Technology in Rochester, NY. “Fuel cells in general still have technology challenges to overcome before they become a mainstream commodity.”

FAA gets involved
Safety remains an issue because a solution with a high methanol percentage is required to power the fuel cell. Currently, the Federal Aviation Authority only allows a 24% methanol solution into aircraft cabins, and solutions of 60% or higher currently are required to power micro fuel cells. More research will be required before micro fuel cells live up to their promise, Nasr said.

“The technology is very exciting and has tremendous potential,” Nasr said, “but whether fuel cells can overcome lifecycle challenges to become reliable and at what cost are questions that still have to be answered.” Because so much fuel cell research is being conducted at start-up companies founded to exploit the technology, a key consideration is whether those breakthroughs will occur before investors start balking and seed funding dries up.

Still, a breakthrough technology likely will become a hot commodity as power-hungry laptops, cell phones, and other portable electronic devices keep evolving with more functionality that places a greater strain on batteries, said Lawrence Gasman, principal analyst at NanoMarkets, based in Glen Allen, Va. He notes a 2005 Consumer Reports study that showed the average working time for laptops dropping because of the extensive use of high-powered functions. “The conventional wisdom is it’s not much use to add 30 minutes of working time,” Gasman said. “The goal is eight hours—a full working day.”

Solar-powered battery chargers, which Gasman said are commercially available but not very common, will compete with micro fuel cells. Unless a worldwide infrastructure to sell methanol becomes available, micro fuel cells won’t gain many adherents, he added. Supercharged lithium ion batteries also have been developed, Russell said, but it’s unclear whether the technology will become mainstream.

Japanese companies are working on fuel cell technology, but because of the potential for copyright or design infringement from the Chinese, those potential developments are guarded carefully, Russell said. The technology is touted, however. Tokyo-based NTT DoCoMo announced in September that it has formed a business and capital alliance with Aquafairy to develop products using fuel cells.

Regardless of whether micro fuel cells will become the savior of hard-working road warriors, it’s clear that technology companies believe next-generation power systems will be required to power increasingly sophisticated mobile devices. And they are working diligently to find a technology that meets the power-intensive demands of the marketplace.

“It’s not clear that fuel cells are the right solution,” Gasman said. “If I had $10,000 to invest, I don’t think my money would go to micro fuel cells.”

Grayson Walker, This e-mail address is being protected from spam bots, you need JavaScript enabled to view it , is a freelance writer based in Atlanta.